On June 7, under the shadow of growing violence, Mexicans will take to the polls to elect 500 deputies to the National Congress, nine governors and more than 1,000 mayors, while a high possibility of absenteeism threatens the political parties in this round of voting.
These mid-term elections under the administration of Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), are talking place at a time when the entire population is reacting to the forced disappearances afflicting the county, where drug cartels operate in league with local authorities.
The population has taken to the streets across all states following the disappearance of 43 students from the locality of Ayotzinapa, in the state of Guerrero, a case in which the Municipal Mayor of Iguala, police force and the Guerreros Unidos cartel were directly implicated. According to hit men arrested in relation to the disappearances, the students were murdered and their bodies subsequently burned.
Official statistics suggest that during the first 22 months of Peña Nieto’s six year term, 9,384 people have been disappeared, representing 40% of the 23,272 murders reported to authorities between January 2007 and October 2014.
That is to say, four out of every 10 disappearances over the last seven years occurred during the first two years of the current administration’s mandate. The statistics also indicate that a Mexican is disappeared every 52 minutes.
These figures were recently published by the National Database for Missing or Disappeared Persons (RNPED).
Guerrero, Michoacán and Tamaulipas are the three states where links between local authorities and cartels are most evident, and where the rate of abstention may also be high, given the government’s failure to prosecute cases of disappearances and murders of civilians.
This grim reality has generated widespread distrust of leaders among the population.
The National Public Opinion Survey: Electoral Process 2015, conducted by the Chamber of Deputies’ Center for Social Studies and Public Opinion, reported that “Seven of every 10 Mexicans believe there to be corruption in parties’ political campaigns, and six out of every 10 stated that the next elections will not represent the desires of the citizenry.”
Although the number of voters in legislative elections is traditionally low, this year the abstention rate could be historic, described by analyst Álvaro Urreola, from the Autonomous University of Mexico, as “endangering democracy,” and no doubt reflects the Pandora’s Box that was opened with the Ayotzinapa case. Since then public denouncements of kidnappings and executions have increased, while hundreds of common graves were discovered during the search for the students.
The violence in Guerrero has been publicly acknowledged, likewise in Tamaulipas, where a rise in acts of violence and insecurity has been seen due to an ongoing dispute between criminal gangs over control of the northern zone. There are also several armed groups fighting for territorial control in Michoacán, including Los Zetas, La Familia Michoacana, Los Caballeros Templarios and Los Viagra, in addition to the emergence of self-defense groups which the government has called Fuerza Rural.
These facts “Reflect the weakness of the Mexican State in some regions and impact on its credibility in regards to implementing reforms,” according to an analysis by Mexican economic research company, TransEconomics.
Proof of this comes as at least seven mayoral candidates have been murdered by drug-trafficking cartels recently, given the victims’ refusal to partake in their illegal activities in the municipalities they supposedly control.
THE PRI ACCORDING TO POLLS
Despite the negative impact of Mexico’s disappeared and the violence perpetrated against citizens, which has eroded government credibility, the PRI seems to be in good position to win the elections.
The Party currently maintains approximately 33% voter support, a three percent drop since the end of April, according to a survey by BGC-Excélsior.
In this study, conducted from April 30 to May 5, the National Action Party (PAN) appears in second place with 25%, three percent higher than in the previous survey. The Revolutionary Democratic Party maintains 14%, while the Verde (Green) and Brown (Morena) parties are battling for fourth place, with 9% and 8% respectively.
In regards to the remaining groups, only the Citizens Movement has obtained over 3%, followed closely by the New Alliance registering a similar figure. The Workers’; Humanist; and Social Encounter parties all come it below this margin, but maintain their party registration.
Although the PRI may be the favorite to win the greatest number of public positions in the upcoming elections according to pollsters, these sources also clarify that it is the most unpopular party. Five out of every 10 Mexicans state that they would not vote for the PRI in Presidential elections, despite the party’s large number of supporters.
These opinions, collected through the Mexican press, reflect the nation’s discontent given human rights violations, cases of political corruption and an exclusionary economy established after the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and the U.S.
A comparative study by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) between Mexico and the European Union, showed that, in 2013, 26% of the population of this Latin American country were living in poverty (increasing at a rate of 0.4% per year) higher than the European average and that of Greece (23%), the nation with the highest poverty rate in the region. In regards to child poverty Mexico registered a figure of 32%.
The study on Latin America and Europe’s current economic and social situation was published on May 30, prior to the meeting of regional heads of state at the EU-CELAC Summit taking place June 11-12.
DIVISION AMONG MEXICO’S PROGRESSIVE FORCES
There currently exist divisions among progressive and left wing forces in Mexico, a key example of which is the resignation of PDR leader Cuatemoc Cárdenas as a consequence of the Ayotnizapa case, given that the mayor implicated is a member of the party.
The new Morena Party led by two-time presidential candidate Manuel López Obrador - currently fourth in the polls in this, its first election, with close to 11% voter support - could represent a genuine upset in the Mexican political scene.
The fact that Morena is refusing to align itself with the PRI could mean a victory for the PAN, currently in second place.
This is the context in which Mexico’s mid-term elections will take place, overshadowed by the population’s dissatisfaction with its leaders, who are supposedly meant to protect the rights of the Mexican people – a stark contrast to the daily reality of the country.
