Just over a year ago, academics from the University of Havana conducted a study on the exchange rates published daily by El Toque and concluded that these did not reflect the real price of the dollar on the Cuban informal market. This study was published in the prestigious Dutch scientific journal Computational Economics.
According to the analysis, such distortion could be occurring because the algorithm used "is intentionally manipulated, or because the main source of information is unreliable." The authors explained that "tracking ads in online chats cannot verify that the transactions are actually taking place."
They added that "the number of participants who actually define the market trend (by carrying out large and frequent transactions) may be small, and they can manipulate the market."
In short, the analysis stated that "relying on El Toque as a true expression of the Cuban peso's value in the economy is, at the very least, risky." "It fails to meet efficiency tests, and the finding that inefficiency can be widespread and persistent across different stages of the series is especially worrying."
Last July, faced with growing questioning of the published exchange rates, El Toque's management was forced to engage in damage control with a sort of editorial, in which they attempted to defend themselves against a report published on TeleSur and an appearance by this writer on the Cuban television program Con Filo.
It is curious, however, that the article ignored the conclusions of the aforementioned study, as well as the extensive report recently published in the Granma newspaper.
Certainly, their arguments lack substance; so much so that with each justification, it seems they are shooting themselves in the foot. For example, in an attempt to impress the unwary, they now claim to have incorporated an artificial intelligence algorithm in determining exchange rates.
But do we already have artificial intelligence capable of analyzing the thousands of transactions that take place daily, person to person, in homes, parks, and businesses, using cash or electronic transfers?
So what have they confessed? That they have been using a highly deficient calculation method. In other words, for their measurements, they take a very small sample of the total number of transactions that may be taking place. Add to this the fact that the transactions used are not even verifiable, but rather buy and sell orders. Can anyone guarantee that many of these offers aren't fraudulent?
As the legal adage says: a confession is sufficient proof. But it's not just about currency fraud. Cuban media outlets have provided solid evidence, citing individuals and official websites of the United States government itself, proving that El Toque not only receives substantial funding from the country that seeks to starve us into submission, but that a portion of those funds is used to cultivate leaders for a supposed "regime change" in Cuba.
Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla denounced at the UN that the "economic war includes a comprehensive destabilization program organized, financed, and executed directly by the United States government, employing Cuban-born operatives based in this and other countries."
In this context, El Toque "is tasked with depressing the population's income level through speculative manipulation of the exchange rate, with a direct effect on price increases, the spread of intimidating and alarmist messages on social media, and the disruption of the natural behavior of the market."
"This involves laundering money from the US federal budget, using funds allocated by the United States Congress and used by the State Department, non-governmental organizations, and contractors who channel it."
Many people are asking on social media why it wasn't decided earlier that our banking system should compete as another player in the informal foreign exchange market, carrying out buying and selling operations using freely floating exchange rates.
The reason is that, before undertaking such a measure, it was essential to bring a fiscal deficit, which reached 18% of the gross domestic product (GDP), down to manageable levels. Under such conditions of imbalance, it was impossible to maintain adequate control of exchange rates.
Now, with a fiscal deficit approaching manageable levels, the Central Bank of Cuba, as the monetary authority, is working to consolidate an orderly and transparent official exchange market, whose rate will gradually reflect the current state of the economy objectively. This process is part of the Government Program and is being carried out in coordination with other agencies of the Central State Administration.
It is crucial to understand that the country needs to organize the exchange system so that these resources contribute to boosting productive sectors, which also include farmers and other private entrepreneurs. Only by producing more will we emerge from the crisis.
I don't want to overlook one of the methods El Toque has been using to defraud many Cubans. They have routinely employed what is known as "sawtooth behavior," a manipulative practice that involves generating large drops followed by abrupt rises in the exchange rate.
For example, between July 2024 and January 2025, two such instances were recorded, while a third occurred recently, registering a drop of up to 115 CUP per dollar, without any real economic event justifying it.
When the artificial rise in the exchange rate finally begins, it is accompanied by supposed predictions that generate panic and other methods to induce compulsive buying. Thus, through the rebound effect, they aim to amplify real increases, which can exclude certain players while benefiting a few interested parties, always at the expense of ordinary people.
It's all very shady; but on this most recent occasion, it seems that the procedure has an "added value." As they expected the Central Bank of Cuba to announce the implementation of a free-floating exchange rate at any moment, the abrupt rise in the dollar's value was intended to sabotage the proper functioning of the measure.
For example, assuming a 50 CUP per dollar increase, totaling one billion dollars, the resulting amount would represent more than 11% of this year's planned budget. They would be engaging in a kind of power struggle, aiming to further depress the market that most Cubans rely on for their supplies. The effect on inflation would be devastating.
This type of speculative practice is also severely impacting key sectors of the economy. For example, we have some of the best coffee in the world. A farmer can plant a thousand coffee plants; but the dilemma lies in the harvest, when a large workforce is needed.
However, the wages farmers could pay cannot compete with the income generated by speculation. Furthermore, producers must pay for inputs and labor at prices determined by artificially inflated interest rates, which significantly hinders their performance.
Overcoming the crisis is not easy, but it is not impossible either. It requires intelligence, hard work, and a great deal of responsibility. And among the numerous actions needed to stimulate economic growth is also the need to rid the economy of toxic elements, such as that financial monstrosity known as "El Toque."
