What we are witnessing in Iran is not just another episode of instability in West Asia. It is a preview of the immediate future of warfare. A future that will no longer be dominated by large military platforms—aircraft carriers, state-of-the-art fighter jets, or exorbitantly expensive systems—but by a different logic based on volume, automation, and data.
The prevailing thesis is clear: military superiority no longer depends solely on possessing the most sophisticated weapon, but on deploying large quantities of inexpensive systems, interconnected and guided by artificial intelligence. In this new scenario, a drone costing tens of thousands of dollars can challenge defenses costing millions. This fundamentally alters the classic equation of military power.
The Washington Post published a revealing statistic last week. In the first week of the US and Israeli aggression against Iran, drones accounted for nearly 71% of defensive actions. Tehran has demonstrated that it doesn't need to compete on equal technological footing with Washington to build a deterrent capability. It simply needs to mass-produce drones, low-cost missiles, and autonomous systems capable of overwhelming enemy defenses. This principle, known as "precise mass," combines sufficient quantity with accuracy, completely altering the cost-effectiveness ratio in combat.
21st-century warfare is shifting towards an arena where industrial capacity, access to data, and software development are as crucial as traditional weaponry. Distributed sensors, commercial satellite imagery, communications, and artificial intelligence systems enable real-time operational coordination without relying on conventional military infrastructure.
Herein lies a central element that is often overlooked: the historical relationship between technological development and the military-industrial complex. The internet, presented as an emblem of freedom and global connectivity, was born as a military project funded by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Many of the technologies that structure daily life—from advanced computing to artificial intelligence—originate from programs funded by the U.S. Department of Defense (renamed the Department of War by Donald Trump).
Big tech companies are no strangers to this process. Companies that now dominate entire sectors of the digital economy grew, directly or indirectly, thanks to U.S. military spending. From developments linked to digital animation to massive data analytics platforms like Palantir, the link between technological innovation and military strategy is structural.
What the conflict with Iran brings to the forefront is the generalization of this logic. War is no longer the monopoly of major powers with unlimited budgets. The combination of accessible technology, distributed production, and open knowledge allows smaller actors to challenge, at least in part, military supremacy.
But this doesn't herald a safer world. On the contrary, it makes war cheaper, reduces the political costs of initiating it, and multiplies the actors capable of waging it. Automation also introduces unprecedented risks, with lethal decisions mediated by algorithms, autonomous systems that are difficult to control, and a technological opacity that hinders accountability.
We are facing a historic shift. The war of the future will not only be a matter of weapons, but also of data, networks, and algorithms. And, as happened with the internet, what is currently being developed in the military sphere will eventually seep into civilian life, reshaping economies, communications, and power relations.
