Recognized in international relations theory as the "Thucydides Trap," this term describes a dynamic of conflict that seems almost inevitable when a rising power threatens to displace an established power.
It originates from the work History of the Peloponnesian War, written by the Athenian general and historian Thucydides in the 5th century BC. In his analysis, Thucydides argues that the war between Athens and Sparta was not provoked by superficial causes: "What made the war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta."
The dilemma can be summarized as follows: as an emerging power grows economically, militarily, and politically, the established power perceives this growth as an existential threat to its hegemony, triggering a spiral of mistrust between the two.
The dominant power may choose to rearm or implement preemptive measures, while the emerging power prepares to defend itself or challenge the established power. Most often, the result is war, even if neither side initially desires it.
Political scientist Graham Allison popularized the term in his book Destined for War (2017), in which he analyzes the relationship between the United States and China. Allison documented 16 historical cases of dominant-rising power pairings over the past 500 years; of these, 12 ended in war.
However, he also stressed that this dilemma is not an inescapable sentence: war can be avoided through wise leadership, appropriate institutions, and mechanisms for cooperation.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's warning to Donald Trump during their recent summit against falling into the "Thucydides Trap" reflects a broader strategic concern about power dynamics in the international system, especially between emerging and established powers.
In the context of this visit, tensions between the two countries were rising. Xi used this historical reference to emphasize that conflict is not inevitable and that the two nations must work together to avoid a confrontation that would be detrimental to both.
Meanwhile, in the case of Cuba, the dilemma is reversed. Here, there is no symmetrical power relationship, but rather an overwhelming asymmetry: the threat that Washington alleges is, in reality, a narrative construct used to justify its historical aggression toward the island.
To avoid falling into this trap, it is crucial that U.S. threats against Cuba cease and that attempts at intimidation stop.
All parties involved must seek solutions based on dialogue and cooperation, prioritizing reason over coercion, which would contribute to greater stability both in the region and in the international system as a whole.
Sources:
Allison, Graham. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017.
Kissinger, Henry. Destiny and Power: The American Odyssey of George Herbert Walker Bush. Penguin Press, 2015.
